Colin Caprani

← Research

Research theme

Structural Reliability & Extremes

Structural reliability replaces a deterministic worst case with an honest account of uncertainty. By treating loads and resistances as the random quantities they are, and by modelling the statistics of rare extremes, it gives a quantitative basis for deciding whether an existing structure is safe, and for designing new ones without needless conservatism.

Our contributions

We apply reliability theory to the design and assessment of bridges, including reliability-based design rules now used in practice and a proposed extension to the assessment methodology of AS5100.7. The methods are released openly through Pystra. Colin chairs the AS5100 Part 2 loading committee and contributes to the JCSS Probabilistic Model Code.

People

Akbar Rizqiansyah
Postdoc · Probability-based bridge assessment & the Australian Standards
Mayer Melhem
Alumnus · A structural reliability approach for the management of heavy-vehicle access on highway bridge networks
Fatemeh Shaker
PhD candidate · Bridge traffic loading, reliability assessment and model error
Shihab Khan
Alumnus · A comprehensive value-of-information framework for quantifying SHM benefits
Ahmed Rasheed Mirza
Alumnus · Integrating network connectivity and structural reliability for transport-network reliability
Liam McCarthy
Alumnus · Probabilistic analysis of indeterminate highway bridges considering material nonlinearity

Selected publications · 45 in this area

  1. C. Caprani, A. Rizqiansyah (2026). Probabilistic Design of Standardised U-Trough Bridge Substructures for the Victorian Broad Gauge Network. Monash University, for the Level Crossing Removal Project doi ↗
  2. J. Su, J. Zhang, J. Zhou, C. C. Caprani (2025). A practical framework for determining target reliability indices for the assessment of existing structures based on risk-informed decision-making. Structural Safety doi ↗
  3. C. C. Caprani, M. S. Khan, J. Hackl (2025). PySTRA: Python Structural Reliability Analysis. Software X doi ↗
  4. B. Ellingwood, M. Maes, F. M. Bartlett, A. T. Beck, C. Caprani, A. D. Kiureghian, L. Duenas-Osorio, N. Galvao, R. Gilbert, J. Li, J. Matos, Y. Mori, I. Papaioannou, R. Parades, D. Straub, B. Sudret (2025). Development of methods of structural reliability. Structural Safety doi ↗
  5. C. Caprani, M. S. Khan, J. W. Ngan (2024). Probabilistic Design of Standardised U-Trough Bridge Girders for the Victorian Broad Gauge Network. doi ↗
  6. A. Rizqiansyah, C. C. Caprani (2024). Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of highway bridge network extreme traffic loading. Structural Safety doi ↗
  7. C. C. Caprani, M. S. Khan (2024). Determination of load combination factors for code calibration. Structural Safety doi ↗
  8. F. Shaker, C. C. Caprani (2024). Enhancing structural performance prediction through Bayesian updating with considering load and speed uncertainty. Bridge Maintenance, Safety, Management, Digitalization and Sustainability doi ↗
  9. C. C. Caprani, M. S. Khan (2024). Reliability calibration of load factors for the Australian rail traffic load model. Bridge Maintenance, Safety, Management, Digitalization and Sustainability doi ↗
  10. M. Haas, C. C. Caprani, B. T. V. Beurden (2023). Bayesian Generative Modeling of Student Results in Course Networks. Journal of Learning Analytics doi ↗

All publications →